The Georgia Runoffs

There should be no mystery as to the outcome of the run-off elections on January 5th for the two undecided Georgia Senate seats. Disregard any polls put out by news organizations (including FOX). The November 3^rd election, tainted as it was for the Presidential race, provided the only poll that matters for predicting the outcome of the Georgia Senatorial runoff races. The hard fact is that on November 3^rd, there were more than enough Republican votes cast in each of the two US Senate races in Georgia to re-elect the two Republican runoff candidates, Kelly Loeffler and David Purdue. Both Loeffler and Purdue are the incumbents in those seats.

To illustrate this, take the following reasonable assumptions:

1. Those who voted for one of the Republican Senate candidates in Georgia on November 3^rd will come out in January to vote for their party’s run-off candidate. We know there’s been talk of disgruntled Trump voters not voting in the runoff, but we think that is another media ruse.
2. Those who voted for one of the Democrat Senate candidates on November 3rd will come out in January to vote for their party’s run-off candidate.
3. Those who voted for Independent or Libertarian candidates on November 3^rd will evenly split their vote between the Republican and Democrat runoff candidates or not vote at all.
4. Those who voted for Green Party candidates on November 3^rd will all vote for the Democrat runoff candidate or not vote at all.

In the runoff race between David Purdue and Jon Ossoff, the math is relatively easy since there was only one other candidate in that race on November 3^rd (Libertarian Shane Hazel). Splitting Hazel’s 115,039 votes in half between Purdue and Ossoff, a generous split for Ossoff since Libertarian voters historically break Republican, gives Purdue a comfortable winning margin of 88,097 votes. This is roughly 8 times the margin of victory Joe Biden had over Donald Trump in the state of Georgia.

The other runoff race between Kelly Loeffler and Ralph Warnock is more complicated. On November 3^rd, that race included a total of 20 candidates from 5 parties. Adding up all the votes for Republican candidates and all the votes for Democrat candidates results in 47,808 more Republican votes having been cast in this race than Democrat votes. Assigning half the total number of Libertarian and Independent votes to each runoff candidate (again, a generous split for the Democrat candidate) but giving all of the Green Party votes (15,293) to the Democrat candidate, would still result in Loeffler having a winning margin of 32,515 votes.

In order for either Democrat candidate to win, they would essentially have to reverse the outcome of the November 3^rd vote. We know there are a lot of variables to consider for the runoff race. However, the math doesn’t lie. There is no question that each of the Republican candidates has the edge going into this runoff race. So, what could change in only two months to reverse the preference of what tens of thousands of Georgia voters have already expressed?

Very little. In fact, the only substantive news item that has surfaced for any of these candidates since November 3^rd has been the allegation of spousal abuse against Democrat candidate Ralph Warnock. Also, the turnout for the Georgia Senate races on November 3^rd was a whopping 27% more than for the 2016 Georgia Senate race which resulted in the election of Republican Johnny Isakson. Isakson retired in 2019 with health problems leading to the temporary appointment of Kelly Loeffler to fill his seat. It would be hard to imagine the turnout for the runoff race would be any greater than two months ago.

Of course, what could change everything for these runoff races is cheating. Regardless of what you believe did or didn’t happen in the 2020 Presidential race, there is already evidence of malfeasance at work for this runoff. The best example is one that is perfectly emblematic of the general Democrat and media stance on election fraud. Stacey Abrams, the losing (Democrat) candidate in the 2018 Georgia governors’ race, formed a group called “The New Georgia Project” to combat what she professes to be voter suppression in the state. This group is under investigation by the Georgia Secretary of State for allegedly:

• Attempting to register out-of-state voters (e.g. telling college students in Georgia they can change their residency to Georgia and then change it back after the election).
• Sending absentee ballots to vacant addresses, to individuals known to be deceased, and to voters living in other cities.

Not surprisingly, a Republican leaning county in Georgia (Muscogee County) was the first to file a lawsuit claiming that 4,033 voters in that county did not meet Georgia’s legal residency requirements and should be purged from the registration rolls before the runoff election. That suit was challenged by an arm of the Democrat Senate PAC, who had just recently received a $2.5 million donation from another Stacey Abrams group called “Fair Fight”. Happily, for the Democrats, that case “randomly” wound up before Judge Leslie Abrams Gardener, the sister of Stacey Abrams (you can’t make this stuff up). Also, not unsurprisingly, Judge Abrams Gardener “ruled” against the Republicans to keep all 4,033 suspect voters on the voter rolls for the runoff election.

While there is a remote possibility that in some parallel universe this sequence of events could genuinely be random, we are extremely skeptical. Most noteworthy in Judge Abrams Gardener’s decision is the fact that she completely ignored and never once mentioned the actual laws covering Georgia residency (Georgia Code Title 21. Elections § 21-2-217) and voter eligibility (Georgia Code Title 21. Elections § 21-2-216). Those laws are clear¹, and the plaintiffs in the case presented evidence that they were violated. Instead, the Judge ruled there would be “…harm to voters whose right to vote is wrongfully impeded or denied…”. Really? And what voters would they be, the out-of-state voters??

The audacity with which the Democrat individuals/groups in this case are flaunting Georgia law, as well as the norms for judicial recusal, is spectacular. Judge Abrams Gardener could not possibly have been objective in this case. These people are no longer even trying to hide their perfidy, knowing the media will cover their tracks for them.

It is exactly this kind of brazen behavior (by election officials, Judges, news media) that took place in several states on November 3^rd in the Presidential election. There having been no consequences for that behavior, we should expect the same things to occur on January 5^th in the Georgia runoff election. Yes, this time around there will be a lot more eyeballs observing the proceedings. However, that may not matter. If there are any challenges to the vote, we now know to expect judges closely aligned with the Democrat party to be “randomly” chosen for all the cases.

Despite all this, we remain optimistic about the outcome of these runoff races. We know ahead of time exactly what the party preference of the voters is for both these Georgia Senate races. They were stated directly by each Georgia voter on November 3^rd. If, as the Georgia Secretary of State proclaims, there will be no cheating in this upcoming runoff, there is only one way the Republican candidates can lose – if those who voted Republican in the Georgia Senate races on November 3^rd decide not to come out and vote on January 5^th.

¹ To clarify in no uncertain terms, Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr issued the following advisory to all Georgia voters on November 11, 2020:

Georgia law provides that it is a felony to either register to vote knowing one does not possess the qualifications for voting in Georgia (O.C.G.A. § 21-2-561) or to attempt to vote knowing one does not possess the qualifications for voting in Georgia (O.C.G.A. § 21-2-571). Those who are found to be in violation could subject themselves to prosecution.