As more of the vote counts are becoming final in seven keenly contested states1, statistical analysis of the voting patterns in each of those states is revealing anecdotal evidence of possible election fraud. As an example, 11 counties in Pennsylvania managed to produce 300,000 more votes for Biden then there are registered Democrats in those counties. A statistical anomaly. Biden also received 100,000 more votes than the Democrat Senate candidates in Georgia, and 70,000 more votes than the Democrat Senate candidate in Michigan, both also statistical anomalies. Sworn affidavits from poll watchers claiming to have directly observed fraud are part of lawsuits in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Republicans are reacting to this information in two very different ways, which says a lot about the psychology of the party right now.
Reaction #1:
The anecdotal evidence of election fraud is convincing enough to confidently acknowledge it in public forums and offer a strong defense of the accusation. A logical conclusion derived from this evidence is that most Republicans, and maybe even some Democrats, will lose confidence in our election process. From that comes the even more abstract conclusion that unless election integrity can somehow be restored, many fewer people will choose to engage in the process and vote in future elections. Thus, our system of government could ultimately fail.
There is a firm desire that any election officials or state office holders who participated in this fraud be identified and punished. Also, this evidence creates a strong motive to get state legislatures to strengthen weak election laws to prevent any such fraud from occurring again. The 2020 election should be considered a universal “call-to-action” once and for all to fix this egregious travesty.
There is truth and reason to all of this. But there is also one gigantic glaring problem with it. It concedes that a Trump loss is a fait accompli. The acknowledged fraud in the 2020 election is placed into the category of a big lesson learned that requires lengthy soul searching and long-term solutions. Meanwhile, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and the Democrat establishment are our collective President for the next four years.
Reaction #2:
Yes, there is plenty of anecdotal evidence of election fraud. But it isn’t a call for future action, it is a call for action right now. The wrong must be turned right in the next few weeks, not by 2024. If this is not done, the fraudsters will have won, and they will surely get away with it again next time. That “next time” may come as early as this January in the two run-off elections for US Senate in the state of Georgia.
If Republicans are going to accuse Democrats of fraud in this election, there can only be one remedy – find real evidence in enough quantity that can stand up to courtroom scrutiny and show illegality. Any other kind of anecdotal evidence, no matter how large a voting anomaly it shows or how personally convincing it is, is absolutely useless if it doesn’t meet that courtroom standard. Any illegal votes must be found and eliminated from the count now. It doesn’t matter if illegal votes are hypothesized to exist if all they will do is support an abstract accusation of fraud.
If fraudulent votes are found and disqualified by a court, and that action reverses the current result of the election, Trump remains President. Anyone connected with perpetrating the fraud should be arrested and prosecuted to the maximum extent of the law. There can be no quarter given here. Anything less will invite the same behavior in the future.
By the same token, if no fraudulent votes are found, or not enough of them are found to make a mathematical difference in the outcome, Biden is President.
There is some level of voting fraud in every single election. Statisticians that sift through data from past Presidential elections are convinced that the frequency of illegal voting has never been enough to mathematically change the result. However, a preliminary statistical analysis of the 2020 Presidential vote (examples cited above) indicates otherwise. While this analysis isn’t helpful to a court to decide which votes or how many should be disqualified, it does justify efforts to continue searching for hard evidence of fraud that a court can use. We believe that is happening now.
Integrity in the mechanics of our voting system is so critical, it requires the most vigorous defense possible if it comes under attack. It is important to note that this is not the same thing as attempting to influence the way a person will vote. Foreign governments, the US media, and campaign propagandists try to influence how you will vote in every election. Even all the debunked conspiracy theories about Russian interference in the 2016 election never included accusations of illegally cast votes or infiltration of the mechanics of our voting systems.
No matter how this turns out, we would love to see some states get serious about creating a secure 21st century voting system. Our dream goals for such a system would be as follows:
- No mail-in voting of any kind. Votes traveling through the US mail system must become a thing of the past. Some form of remote electronic voting must be made available for those with a valid absentee excuse.
- Early voting should be permitted no more than three days before the election, if at all.
- No more paper ballots! There should never again be a need to “guess”, “cure” or “transpose” anyone’s vote choices.
These three things alone will eliminate the most common sources of fraud. We are well aware that a deeper commitment to electronic voting brings with it new potential sources of more sophisticated digital fraud. That being said, we are convinced that a thoughtful approach, and use of the right technology can sufficiently minimize that threat. This is far more a question of the will to act than waiting for any technological breakthrough. Just think how different election night would be if each state reported 100% of its vote totals within seconds after the polls closed.
1 Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona