The body of bank record evidence showing that Joe Biden was part of a money trail leading from China to Hunter Biden has reached critical mass. There is now sufficient hard documentation against the President to fully justify a House impeachment hearing alleging Biden accepted bribes in exchange for influence. By “sufficient”, we mean that enough Republican House members, given the evidence at hand, will now support impeachment proceedings.
One of the next steps in the investigation will be to determine if funds funneled via a complex money laundering scheme into Joe Biden’s personal bank account should have been counted as income and reported on his tax return. If he did not pay taxes on this money, that would be an additional felony (high crime) on top of the bribery charge.
The work of the House impeachment inquiry committee, launched in September, in combination with the ongoing investigation of Joe Biden by House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, almost certainly portend proceeding to the next procedural step in the impeachment process. We would expect debate on the House floor and a formal impeachment vote sometime in January.
Conventional wisdom dictates that if Biden were impeached by the House, there is no chance the Senate would vote to convict him. Not only do Democrats control the Senate, but at least 17 Dem defections would be necessary along with total solidarity among the Republicans to achieve the required two thirds Senate majority for a conviction.
But could a Biden impeachment be one of the best gifts ever handed to the Democrat Senate by the Republican House? Think about it. For some time now, all polling data, and even the liberal media has been strongly suggesting Biden not run for a second term because of his age and obvious cognitive infirmity. In fact, it has become quite difficult to find a credible Democrat in government who enthusiastically supports Biden for a second term.
Despite this urging, Biden refuses to drop out of the race. Even former advisers of President Obama are now telling Biden he shouldn’t run. Polling data continues to show that not only is Biden now losing to former President Trump in all the battleground states, that gap is widening, not shrinking. The addition of several Independent and third party candidates (RFK Jr., Jill Stein, Cornell West, Maryanne Williamson) is attracting many Democrat voters who do not want Biden to run but will not vote for Trump.
Will the Democrats simply sit on their hands and watch a slow-motion Biden train wreck lead to a big loss next November? Hardly. We know for sure they will do something to change that trajectory. But what?
One theory is that the Democrats will simply choose their preferred candidate at the Democrat National Convention via the old style “brokered” arrangement. That would unceremoniously cast off Biden at the last minute, even if he prevailed in the primaries. A new candidate would then be chosen by party leaders and delegates at the convention. This is risky however, since whoever the chosen candidate is will have very little time to raise money and organize a national campaign against Donald Trump (the presumed Republican nominee). Also, the candidate chosen will not have been voted in by the people.
Another theory: the Democrats decide it is in their best interest to remove Joe Biden from office by way of the impeachment path given to them by the Republicans. Yes, that does leave Kamala Harris as President for a short time.1 But it will also immediately open the flood gates for an open Democrat primary with many more suitable candidates competing. Unlike Biden, Harris would not scare any likely rival Dem candidates away, as she has the lowest approval rating of any Vice-President in the history of polling data.
Moreover, the Senate Dems may not even have to vote to convict Biden. Just the rumor of some Democrat Senators that might defect and vote to remove the President might be enough to force Biden to resign and avoid embarrassment. For that matter, even before the case ever gets to the Senate, just the threat of an impending impeachment vote in the House may force Biden to resign. This happened with President Nixon in 1974.2
All of this would have to happen soon to preserve the ability of new Democrat presidential candidates to participate in as much of the traditional primary process as possible. In some key states (Nevada, South Carolina, Georgia) the registration deadline to be on the primary ballot has already passed. The deadlines for many of the other states are quickly approaching.
The very last thing Biden or his family would want is for his long government career to end by being the first ever US President to be convicted of an impeachable offense and removed from office. Even Trump didn’t suffer that fate.
1 If Kamala Harris were to become President for a few months, the Democrats could claim the trophy for being the party that brought not only the first black president to office (Obama) but now also the first black female. This side benefit of removing Biden may prove irresistible to some Dem Senators who thrive on identity politics.
2 In July 1974, the House Judiciary Committee recommended President Nixon’s impeachment, the final step before a full House impeachment vote. One week later, Nixon announced his resignation, before the full House of Representatives had a chance to vote on his impeachment.