“We have to take care of the cure that will make the problem worse no matter what.” ― Joe Biden
With many states now either pausing or even reversing their re-opening plans after the COVID-19 lockdowns, it appears that all hope of getting society back to normal is now resting on a vaccine projected to be delivered sometime early next year. Even President Trump seems to be acquiescing to continued restrictions and more frequent mask wearing while we wait for the momentous day the vaccine is ready. Is this the best, or only course of action? It could work. But even if the vaccine is 100% medically effective, we think there are too many other variables in play for a vaccine to produce the expected “magical” outcome – at least for the next few years. It’s also quite possible that in the current social and political climate, putting all the eggs into the vaccine basket could be destructive to the country, leading to even greater societal divisions that we would all regret later.
In hindsight, President Trump’s instincts were correct back at the beginning of March. He stated then that the country needed to close down for a few weeks to stock up on needed medical equipment but should be able to reopen by Easter. He should have stuck with that guideline and not wavered. As it turned out, when Easter arrived (April 12th) a robust supply chain for the needed supplies had been created1 and the desired “flattening of the curve” had occurred. If state governors had removed all restrictions at that point except those pertaining to the “most-vulnerable” categories of people, and reopened fully as the President originally suggested, we would be much further down the road to herd immunity by now. We also would not have had nearly as much unemployment and economic loss, saving untold lives that have been lost directly or indirectly to the fallout from those hardships. And that doesn’t even count the lives that would have been saved by restoring access to preventative and routine medical services much earlier. Yes – many more people would have become infected with the virus had this course of action been chosen. That goes with the territory of achieving herd immunity. We also know that in this scenario the number of deaths directly caused by COVID-19 would be higher. But at the same time, the number of indirect deaths caused by the extended economic catastrophe, delayed medical treatment for non-COVID illnesses, and the number of suicides2 would be correspondingly lower. We strongly believe the net result would have been a smaller total number of COVID-19 related deaths (direct + indirect) to this point by simply having let the virus run its course after the Easter holiday. We would be much closer to herd immunity in the hotspots, and fewer Americans would have died overall.
While we’re not convinced herd immunity can be achieved across the entire country, we do believe local pockets of herd immunity CAN be achieved that will protect the hardest hit areas. In that context, herd immunity should have been our main goal from the beginning and should still be the goal now. The best estimate for the arrival of a vaccine in bulk quantities is sometime in the winter/spring of 2021. Fast forward to that point in time. Even if 350 million doses of the vaccine are produced, will every American choose to receive the injection? No. For starters, there are those who subscribe wholesale to the anti-vaccine philosophy (anti-vaxxers) and refuse vaccines of all kinds for themselves and their children. It’s hard to find accurate numbers for this group, but most estimates put it around 9% of the population (a little over 30 million people). Then, there are those who are selective anti-vaxxers. For example, while a large portion of the population agrees with receiving childhood vaccinations (the CDC states ~90%), less than half of all adults choose to get the flu shot each year. According to the CDC, only 45% of adults received the flu vaccine for the 2018 – 2019 flu season, and that represented an increase over previous years. And don’t forget the people who are reluctant to be the first to receive any kind of brand-new medical treatment, especially in light of COVID-19’s vastly overblown lethality. This group may eventually decide to get the vaccine, but not until it has been shown to be safe over time and on a scale of millions. If this was a vaccine for an Ebola-type virus that kills up to 90% of its victims, that risk decision might be different.
In addition, we have no doubt whatsoever that after the election, the virus panic kept alive by the news media will dissipate. If President Trump wins, the media’s constant daily exaggerated virus reporting will diminish because the pressure of an upcoming election will have passed, and voters will no longer need to be terrorized. If Biden wins, the panic will dissipate instantly because every effort will be made by the media to make him look like the country’s savior. In either case, we suspect COVID-19 urgency will be lower after the election, making it harder to convince a majority of Americans to get the vaccine. Without a panic-driven environment, we think COVID-19 will be seen publicly for what it really is – similar to influenza in overall mortality rate and course of illness (excluding the most vulnerable groups), and much less deadly than influenza to working age people and children. In that light, why should we expect the COVID-19 vaccination rate to be any greater than the influenza vaccination rate?
We predict that after the mad rush to create a giant stockpile of COVID-19 vaccine doses, less than half the population (~40% at best) will be willing to receive it the moment it is available. In that scenario, the virus will be suppressed to a degree, just like the flu is every year, but will not be eradicated, just like the flu is not eradicated every year. What does that mean for continued social distancing and use of masks in public? A forever of swathed faces and rejection of human touch? The implied promise of a vaccine is that we would finally get back to normal pre-COVID-19 life. Is this just another false promise to the citizenry?
Assume social distancing requirements are lifted shortly after a vaccine is deployed. The virus will then spread faster through the 60% or more of the unvaccinated population who can still serve as viable hosts for COVID-19. In this scenario, we predict that the total number of infections throughout the country, with approximate 40% of the population vaccinated, would be no less than what we are seeing right now with social distancing in effect and no vaccine. How would the government and medical experts respond? If they choose to continue social distancing rules and suffer all the attendant consequences we have now for schools, businesses, sports, and restaurants, the vaccine would not have improved anything for those enterprises.
Extending social distancing, masks, and/or lockdowns in the above scenario would also worsen the chances of herd immunity developing in the places where it would be most beneficial. As was reiterated endlessly this past spring and summer by the disease experts, focusing preventative measures on the “hotspots” provides the best suppression results. If only a portion of the population will get the vaccine, that portion should ideally be within the hotspots. Will folks in the hotspots agree to be vaccinated? No guarantee. On the contrary, if the virus were allowed to run its course unimpeded while isolating only the most vulnerable, herd immunity would naturally occur first in the hotspots. It’s an open question whether US-wide herd immunity can ever be achieved.
That brings us to our biggest worry regarding a COVID-19 vaccine. What if the federal and/or state governments try make the vaccination compulsory? As tyrannical as that seems, a vaccine mandate would not be a far stretch from some of the draconian executive orders already issued by governors earlier this year during the lockdowns. Such directives would not surprise us in the least, especially after the huge investment by the media and politicians in grossly exaggerating the danger of the virus. But how could a mandate be enforced? This is where it gets interesting. We’ve already had a hint from Dr. Fauci. On April 11th, Dr. Fauci told CNN that the government was considering issuing COVID-19 “Immunity Cards”. To persuade people to get the vaccine, those without immunity cards would have only restricted access (or be denied entry) to schools, government offices, restaurants, sports stadiums, etc. How will this be received by the public? We already see a snarling societal division occurring between mask wearers and non-mask wearers. A divide between immunity card holders and non-card holders would be far more destructive and create all sorts of additional and unnecessary problems. Furthermore, don’t count out federal and/or state governments deciding to enact fines for vaccine “non-compliance”. Remember the ObamaCare provision that disguised fines as a new “tax” for non-subscribers?
We see value in vaccinations for anyone in the known group of individuals most vulnerable to severe COVID-19; the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions. This is a relatively small portion of the population, and vaccinations for this group should have a much greater effect on reducing the overall number deaths from COVID-19 than anything else. Nearly half of all COVID-19 deaths occur in nursing homes facilities. The greatest COVID-19 tragedy thus far sprang from the barbaric decision made by New York Governor Andrew Cuomo back last spring to force the admission over 6,300 known COVID-19 patients into New York nursing homes. The resulting number of COVID-19 deaths in New York nursing homes is now so high, it exceeds the total number of COVID-19 deaths (from any age group) in the entire state of Florida. Try finding that statistic in any of the current news media stories attempting to create the illusion of a COVID-19 apocalypse taking place in Florida.
What the news media has perpetrated in deluging America with overhyped panic and outright false reporting about COVID-19 is monstrous. Every day, more true information is coming to light about the much larger number of asymptomatic and undiagnosed COVID-19 infections, significantly fewer than anticipated hospitalizations, and the fudged tabulation of actual deaths due to COVID-19. The truth is, particularly for children and those under 70, COVID-19, without a vaccine, is less dangerous than the seasonal flu WITH a vaccine. What we are seeing right now is a desperate attempt by the media and Democrat politicians to make COVID-19 appear much worse by manipulating numbers, presenting them out of context, and outright lying. Part and parcel to this deception is the implication that a quickly arriving vaccine will be a panacea, ignoring all the difficulties in deploying this vaccine we review above. We must merely remain miserable by staying six feet apart and wearing masks until the vaccine arrives, and then all will be well. Conveniently, a vaccine won’t appear for use until after the election. The belief by Democrats and the media is that a continued state of confusion, fear, and anger will tilt voters toward choosing a new President, no matter how ruinous and debilitated that new President may be.
Our best hope is LIVING WITH the virus, whether total herd immunity is achieved or not. Protect the most vulnerable and let the healthy live their lives. Are we to allow ourselves to be continually driven and herded by the media’s bogeyman into merely hiding and hoping? Such fainthearted acquiescence will leach the lifeblood from this country’s economy, expand the non-COVID-19 medical mass casualty event we are now experiencing and destroy the morale of a once brave, proud nation.
1During the month of March, Ford and GM began converting some of their car assembly plants to build ventilators. By the week of April 12th, thousands of ventilators began rolling off those assembly lines.
2During the week of March 22nd at the height of the COVID-19 lockdown, more people died from suicide in one Tennessee county than died from COVID-19 in the entire state, according to the Tennessee Department of Health. At the time, the Mayor of Knoxville Glen Jacobs, said – “That number is completely shocking and makes me wonder if what we are doing now is really the best approach. We have to determine how we can respond to COVID-19 in a way that keeps our economy intact, keeps people employed and empowers them with a feeling of hope and optimism – not desperation and despair.”